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The international energy agency cutting its forecast uh to uh for the 2020 oil demand demand by more than eight million barrels per day citing whats calling a treacherous ahead amid weakening market sentiment and the surge of course in coronavirus cases globally joining us on all this and so much. More is. Dan jurgen.
Vice chairman of ihs market and author of the new map energy climate and the clash of nations. Which is out today daniel congratulations thank you for joining us thank you morning. Im glad that we could do that together and i want to talk about the book in just a moment.
But i also want to talk if we could about the state of the oil markets given. Where we are and what the expectations uh are for for the price of oil and what do you think that means geopolitically for so many countries around the world right now if we start with the price of oil uh. Its uh.
The opec countries are coming back uh with more production inventories are high. But the big thing out there andrew is of course. The the resurgence of the virus in its country.
Like india. Which is very important for demand isnt uh is in is in bad shape. The only country thats doing well right now from virus point of view.
Really is china where demand is coming back. But we uh our our number had been pretty close to what the iaea has come up with that this year. Demand will be about 92 million barrels a day compared to over 100 million barrels a day last year.
And and though in terms of where you think the price lands. Lets say 12 18 months out and what is a country like saudi arabia. Do what do you think the true implications are for sort of the the power grab that or or does it or the power grab that happens or doesnt happen during this period.
Well i think that for countries that are highly dependent on oil like saudi arabia. This is a lot of pressure that puts pressure on their budget it sets back their plans for vision 2030. Its a big hit for russia.
Which depends upon in normal times. 40 50 percent of its budget from oil and gas.
So for the exporting countries and for the companies. Its tough when it seemed to be in the 40s going to the 50s people started to have a sigh of relief. But now its down under under 40 again reflecting these factors you know the president was in california yesterday uh.
You know uh in the wake of these wildfires uh. There was a clip going around about conversation about science and climate change and whatnot. But uh one of the questions.
I wanted to ask you was uh in this book of yours uh you theres an anecdote about uh. The number of teslas on the street and the implications for oil and and im im curious whether you think that the electric cars. Really are changing things and changing these as fast as you thought they would because that was the one piece of it i was confused about whether you think this is happening faster or actually much slower than you thought well i think in silicon valley.
Its happening faster. But i think if you look at the growth numbers for evs. Theres still a very small part of the overall mix and at least the view that we have is well go from.
Today we have about 14. Billion cars in the world 2 billion by 2050. Maybe 6.
700. Million of them will be evs the rest will be either hybrids or gasoline powered. I think the one wild card is what governments do in the pressure for instance.
The eu european governments will put penalties on automobile companies unless they push out evs and that would be something that would accelerate it what about the trucking business. We were talking about nicola uh. Just a moment ago before the commercial break.
I mean you would imagine that the trucking business would play a huge role in this and yet also again probably moving much more slowly than than the kind of we might have expected given some of the conversations that were happening even several years ago. Absolutely with trucks its a you know you need they need more power and the question is can you really get them from batteries. And do that so i think trucking uh.
Its uh. Its its that its going to be slower. Obviously nikola is trying to be out there like tesla was several years ago but uh its easier to do an electric car than a a large electric truck you .
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