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“Easiest way to determine the best world ncup nation. Is to just add up the the number of times each nation has won by this standard nbrazil leads on the s side with five titles while the us leads the women with nthree. But of course. This isn t a level playing field.
The pitch is pitched you nmight say each nation has different financial situations. Different levels of national interest nin. The game and importantly. Very different population sizes to draw their players from nso.
Which nation is really the best at the world cup nthere have been a number of attempts to measure world cup performances more evenly this article nfrom 2013. Divided each nation s fifa ranking score by population to find the answer of nmontenegro variations on a similar formula used on this website found that the current nleader is argentina or maybe. The faroe islands. While this article.
Says that brazil is the nnation has outperformed its resources. The most or if you re measuring by media attention nor national pride. The leader is probably iceland who this year became the smallest nnation to ever qualify with a population of just. Over 330000.
And had over 99 percent. Nof. The nation s tv viewers. Watching the end of its first ever world cup match nbut.
All of these methods either use match results. Outside of actual world cup play. Nor are only focused on recent success. Or use a per capita system.
Which heavily favors nreally. Small countries or some combination of the three nso. I tried to come up with a system that would walk the line balancing..
Large and small nations nwhile. Only using results taken directly from the world cup. I call it the impressiveness o meter ni explain the rationale in more detail in my first olympics video. But in brief the nformula uses a binomial distribution which is a probability function you can find on nany spreadsheet program given a specific number of trails in this case.
20 world cups nand. An expected probability of success in this case a. Nation s population divided nby world population . It will tell you the odds.
A given number of successes will occur. Nfrom. Which we can fashion a sort of score for how unlikely and therefore. How impressive na nation s performance is whether or not you think.
The math is confusing nthe world history surrounding. It is over the time the world cup has existed countries. Nhave shifted grown shrunk split reunited and changed names. I had to make some judgement ncalls for the sake of consistency from combining the performances of germany and west germany nwhile ignoring east.
Germany and combining czechoslovakia with the czech republic to naveraging populations over time to pretending the 1940s didn t happen. Because there were nno world cups in that decade in summary. The impressiveness o meter. Is nan imperfect formula using imperfect data.
But even so i believe it s better than nthe other measuring systems. We commonly use it s our least worst option if you will to answer an nimpossible. Question so with that glowing self. Endorsementlet s look at the results nwhen you run.
The formula for the men s world cup results looking only at titles uruguay nleads with two wins. An impressive total for for a nation whose population has ranged from n2 to 3 million million people over that time italy is second with four titles and na population ranging from 40 to 60 million followed by the more traditional powers of nbrazil. Germany and argentina..
But there s more to the world cup than just nwinning it all winning the cup takes so much luck and timing that a good measure of nsuccess will also reward those nations who consistently make it deep into the tournament. Nwhether. They win the whole thing or not so i created a combined score using five cumulative nbinomial distributions one for the total number of world cups won one for total finals. Nreached one for all semifinals.
Reached all quarterfinals reached and all rounds of 16 nreached in old tournaments with different formats. I used a nation s final ranking nin lue of the rounds it reached i then doubled the value of each successive round which nis an arbitrary. But i think reasonable way to weight the results nwhen. We look at this overall score.
The main difference is that germany jumps to the top nbarely nudging out uruguay under the power of four titles. Eight final appearances and 13 nsemifinal appearances below that the top rankings stay more or less the same. It s nimportant to note that this graph does not include the 2018 world cup. Results.
And since nuruguay advanced out of the first round and germany. Did not the top two nations will nsoon switch positions whether they will remain in the top two spots. However remains to be seen nbecause brazil could pass both of them by winning it all this year nhowever the thing about a chart like this is that it s a one dimensional summary of nevents that have taken place over 84 years so in order to see how world cup success breaks ndown over time here s a rolling score for every nation to ever reach a final where neach dot represents a nation s impressiveness score over a five world cup span. The first ndot representing 1930 to 1954.
The second 34 to 58 and so on if we simplify nthis slightly. We can see that uruguay argentina and brazil have all had moments in the sun nwhile. Germany has proven the most consistent thus their current narrow lead in the overall standings nitaly. Hungary.
England the netherlands and france have also reached the top three nat various points. But of course simply looking at population nand performance isn t going to get us anywhere close to a level playing field. There are nan impossible. Number of other variables at play.
But while we re never going to be nable to account for them all one important factor. That is easily quantifiable is national nwealth as measured by gdp per capita. On this graph this side is impressiveness..
And this nside is gdp per capita. So up and to the left. Is good the graph is animated over time nwith each position again accounting for five world cups here. Germany s success is put ninto perspective.
While the successes of uruguay brazil. Argentina and recently spain are nput in a better light on the women s side. When you look at titles nonly. The us squeaks out a lead over germany.
But there have only been 7 women s world ncups. So for the rest of the women s results. I m going to cheat a little bit and incorporate nthe six tournaments women have played in the olympics. Just to increase the sample size nunlike.
The olympic men s tournament. Which has age restrictions designed to prevent it nfrom being considered equal to the world cup. The women s olympic tournament. Represents na more comparable level of competition so looking at world cup and olympic titles combined nnot much changes except that germany falls back a little this is a very short list.
Because nonly. Four nations have ever won a women s world cup or olympic title nwhen. We look at the overall women s score for any nation. That has reached a final norway njumps to the top while sweden.
Brazil and china get on the board this score might seem nhard on china. But when you have nearly a fifth of the world s population. The impressiveness o meter nwould. Expect you to dramatically outperform a country with say five percent of the world s npopulation us or one percent.
Germany . Or zero point. Zero seven percent norway..
. Nif. We put the women s results. On a timeline.
Where each dot represents a combined score nof five world cup and olympic tournaments and simplify things are again put in a slightly ndifferent perspective. Norway was hot out of the gate. But the us germany and sweden. Nhave been more consistent.
While japan has also arrived on the scene recently nadding the dimension of wealth. We see that norway s hot start is put into perspective na little bit and japan stands out more while the disparity that nations like brazil and nchina are up against becomes. More obvious. It s interesting that in the women s game.
Nthe. Greatest success has gone to wealthier countries. While in the men s game. It s nmore evenly spread across the financial spectrum and finally to sum it all up here is men s and women s impressiveness combined germany nblows away the field in this category.
As the only nation to have won both a men s nand women s world cup title in the end your enjoyment of the world cup ndoesn t have to be dependant on the performance of your national team. I have to believe nthat this year because i m an american who s really the best world cup nation nthese numbers point to germany. But these aren t the only numbers. And numbers are never the whole nstory anyway.
So it s up to each of us to decide whether any of this matters outside of a nerdy youtube video. ” ..
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