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“Is the cost of a life is a life worth. A picnic in a park park is a life worth going to the beach is a life worth having a cold ones with your buddies in the basement. The answer is no none of those things is worth as much as a life so to everyone in ontario. We need to listen we need to listen to what the data tells us we need to take action.
We must take these warning seriously ontario premier. Doug ford warned the numbers would be stark and sobering and they were hi. There and welcome to power in politics. I m boshy capello s ontario health officials released their projections today for copan 19.
00 and the devastation it could wreak on the. Province they expect the virus to kill as many as 15000. People. In ontario over the course of this pandemic.
Which could last up to two years. But it could be much worse. Without social distancing measures or other measures taken the death toll could have. Reached they say.
100000 here s a more short term outlook had ontario done nothing 6000. People. The data shows would be dead by the end of this month. But with current restrictions ontario can expect approximately 1600 deaths that could be reduced further to 200 deaths.
If stronger measures are implemented and some of those stronger measures were announced today. Another troubling statistic. Ontario s ic use are running out of beds. 900 will have to be added to cope with the rising.
Number of serious cases. Dr. Callie. Barrett is a critical care doctor at toronto western hospital.
And is a part of the cova. 19. Modeling collaboration. A group that s creating healthcare resource use models to identify capacity.
Constraints. She s in toronto. Hi. Dr.
Barrett. Thanks. Very much for making time for us. I thank you from dr.
So ontarians. I think in canadians. We re all watching today and there s a lot of numbers that they got a lot of projections. They got if you were to identify from your perspective.
The headline. They should take away what is it i think the most and courtin thing that canadians need to take away from today s briefing was that we are facing a significant public health crisis across the country. And that it is only with the efforts of healthcare workers and hospitals and healthcare systems to increase capacity which we re doing our best at as well as the public adhering to physical distancing is only with those two efforts combined will we be able to prevent overwhelming our healthcare system. I want to ask about capacity of the healthcare system in a second but when it comes to the data itself and sort of the models put forth can you help us understand.
There s so much debate. Lately about are they helpful are they not are they how accurate can they be what would you tell people watching now about the accuracy of the numbers that they just heard so i mean a model is as good as the data that it s informed by and certainly..
Our group s efforts have been informed by ontarian and canadian data. And we modeled three different scenarios based on observed trajectories that have occurred. So we modeled based on the observed trajectory in south korea in italy. And then observed.
What s happened so far in ontario and modeled a prediction based on that so in our model. We had a worst case. The best case and what we think is gonna happen in ontario. And so what canadians can take away is these models give us a picture of what could happen if we did a better job of flattening.
The curve. If we didn t adhere to flattening the curve and we got into trouble like they have in italy and spain and they re getting into in the united states. But also what can happen if we sort of don t do anything more and i guess. That s the the question.
I had when i when i watched or when i was listening into the presentation and watching it because the numbers are something that we all want to grab onto right. But obviously our behavior can impact what they eventually end up on and i guess you know i m wondering for our audience. If we if we do adhere to everything is there a scenario at which you know it s it s it s not over a thousand deaths next month or this month. So i mean our model didn t look at the the number of deaths that was another team s model.
I think what s important for ontarians and canadians to remember is that we shouldn t be focusing on the the exact number that an a model puts out. But the overall trend. And what certainly our results have shown is that flattening the curve and adhering to physical distancing will absolutely reduce the number of patients presenting to hospitals with kovat 19 00. But also by increasing the capacity in the system.
We can reduce the burden and so what our model showed was that only when we both flatten the curve through the public adhering to physical distancing and we increase the capacity through finding additional hospital and icu beds will we be able to prevent getting into a situation. Where we don t have enough resources for the patients who need them let s flip to the capacity side of this and that is the last point that you made around especially intensive care beds. Where does the situation sit right now. So.
According to today s report from critical care services ontario. There are 415 beds that are currently available for cope it 19 patients. And there is about 55 percent of the capacity of ventilators available for patients so right now we re doing okay we have capacity. But what we re worried about is the rapid increase in the number of patients who are gonna need an icu bed or a ventilate over the next week or two and we do have the ability to surge off by spilling over into other units that we wouldn t normally put our critical care patients in or ventilating patients in the recovery rooms for the operating theatres or actually ventilating patients in the operating rooms themselves.
And so by by spilling out into those other areas. We can create additional capacity absolutely. But we may still get into a situation where that surge capacity is not enough if we don t flatten. The curve is this sir is that work underway for surge capacity.
Already yes. Yes hospitals have been diligently working. At identifying additional surge capacity for a very long time and across the province and i m sure across the country. We have been working on trying to identify extra space for these patients.
Yes. Alongside data. There has been a big discussion as well this week around the availability or lack thereof of supplies. Especially today.
The focus is on those n95 masks. Thanks to sort of the political discussion back and forth where 3m is concerned from a supply perspective. What is your experience so far and are you worried about sort of ppe being available. So i can t speak to this supply because i m not working on that but i certainly know that at my institution right now we have enough personal protective equipment.
But we also know that if we have an overwhelming number of patients. We we could run out of n95 masks or face shields or gloves or gowns. And this is a global pandemic and so every single institution in the world. Right now is scrambling to identify more ppe.
So i think the global demand probably outstrips the ability of these manufacturers to produce this equipment. And i think it s important for the public to recognize that if they don t do their part by adhering to physical distancing and flattening the curve they may contribute healthcare workers being in a position..
Where they don t have the ppe to look after them because the number of ppe or or masks. Whatever that we go through is proportional to the number of patients. We re taking care of before i let you go one more question on the sort of overall modeling. And that is around i think another number.
I m guessing stuck out to a lot of people when we heard that the pandemic could last anywhere from 18 to 24 months. I think the first question. Most of us had is okay is that how long we re going to be observing these kinds of measures physically distancing not going to work businesses close down. I asked with the caveat that obviously our behavior right now can completely change what happens a month from now or two months from now.
And i know that there s no such thing as a crystal ball. But loosely how do you interpret that is there the possibility that this this behavior has to be observed for that long so. Yes. My understanding from my conversations with the epidemiologist is that this is going to be a it s not going to be something that we re gonna be able to fix with two or three weeks of physical distancing that this is going to take some time and that we re gonna have to flatten or curve over a long period of time in order to prevent that surge and overwhelming up the healthcare system.
And so i think this is this is going to be something that we re all gonna have to really adhere to for quite some time okay i ll leave it there thank you so much dr. Barrett. Appreciate your time this evening. No problem my pleasure cities of course in ontario have been on the front lines of this crisis when it comes to trying to stop the spread of kovat.
19. Through fines for ignoring physical distancing measures for example by closing parks or other public spaces. So what do mayors think of the projections coming out of ontario. Today.
The modeling released by the province and how could it impact their response to the pandemic. Drew dilk ins is the mayor of windsor. Bonnie crombie. Is the mayor of mississauga and jim watson.
Is the mayor of ottawa. All three of them join us from their respective cities. Hi. There good to see you all thanks for making time for us.
I m gonna start off with a very simple question to all three of you and i ll start with you mayor watson. What was your takeaway as you heard the modelling the numbers the projections from ontario health officials today well it was quite frightening to see those numbers and i think he gives us evidence once again why the fiscal level. We re doing our very best to encourage people to a respectful distance on staff to stay out of parks. Do not gather in groups of more than five people because not only are people when they re doing that being irresponsible.
It s illegal and we see the impact that if we don t start modifying the behavior of that small minority. The situation can be very very dire indeed mayor crombie. What was your takeaway numbers were very sobering. It certainly gave us the evidence we needed to tell people this is no hoax.
There s no joke. This is very serious many lives are at right now you could be putting your own parents or grandparents or loved ones at risk that there s still a large degree of non compliance and that s why many of us have taken those measures to closing of the facilities in our parks and to increase our by law enforcement. Many of us mayor john tory. Myself others across the gta are going on an enforcement list this weekend on our parks and on our paths and to ensure that people are complying with physical distancing and not gathering in numbers of greater than five.
And we will be ticketing people starting at 750 dollars and uh if they re non compliant mayor. Dylan s your takeaway as we listen to those those very sobering projections. Yeah vastly i think you know the last few weeks. Certainly everyone s had their their mayor s hat on and they re trying to work through the issues that confront the.
Municipality but when you hear a sobering figure like 15000. It really makes you for a moment take that hat off and reflect as a as a husband as a brother as a son as a father you know that this is real and people need to take this situation very very seriously and those numbers. If you need no. Other evidence look at those numbers as the reason.
Why you need to take this seriously. And i think if my own parents were in their 70s and what the impact could be on them if they were to contract colvard..
19. So please everyone keep the social distance take these numbers very seriously. This is not a joke and death here is real mayor watson when it comes to the measures that each municipality is taking mayor crombie talked about a blitz for example of enforcement. This weekend.
We heard mayor tory talk a few days ago about canceling all you know all events until the end of june where do you sit in those issues well in terms of enforcement. We certainly gave direction to our bylaw officers is starting today no more warnings are going to start ticketing as body said. It s a 750 fine and our vile offices. Now have new powers given to them by the province and we re going out.
And you know we ve had people offering horseback riding less than someone was running a crash. The other day people were playing beach volleyball in one of our beaches. Someone else was opening a hair salon just complete irresponsibility unless you ve been living in a cave. Why would people continue to flaunt the law and put themselves at risk and then come home and put their family at risk.
It s completely idiotic irresponsible and now illegal so where you know it s enough of being the nice person. It s time to start ticketing these people and as i said today in a press conference. You know we re gonna pick them in the pants and then kick them in the pocketbook because 750 is gonna sting for someone who s being not very thoughtful of others by hanging around playing basketball or holding a grass hill in the middle of a pandemic. It s ridiculous.
And he thought just a quick follow up to canceling city event. Permits for until june 30th for example. Yeah. We ve been reaching out to our various festivals and groups of arts groups and so on and we ll be making an announcement on on monday.
But it s pretty clear that a number of events are gonna have to be canceled. We don t know for instance what s gonna happen on july 1st because we know june 30th is one day july 1st as you know is a big deal and across canada especially in ottawa. But looking bleaker and bleaker. That these events are going to take place which is a huge hit to the local economy.
But it s the right thing to do we can t possibly risk having big events gatherings like canada. Day. Or jazz festival and tulip festival. Without putting other people at risk.
Until this pandemic is over for good mayor crombie. You heard the frustration that merits an expressed we ve had a lot of politicians on this week. Who are equally frustrated is it a feeling that you share as you see people continue and not the majority. But still some people continue to defy the orders put in place certainly.
I ll address that but also let me say that we will lightly close down all of our festivals and events. Not only till the end of. June but i can t imagine a welcoming 20000. People into my square for canada day after the day before everything was shut down this looks like it s going to go out a few more months.
So probably things will be shut down for much longer than we anticipate i myself had a walk along our waterfront and witnessed a family a large group in fact playing on the swings. Even though. We had yellow taped off the playground can you imagine. So we ve also seen evidence of people breaking locks tearing down caution tape knocking over barriers because we ve now gated all the entrances to our parking lots in our parks.
So we see evidence of vandalism. We see the mesh and the fences cut people attempting to use our soccer. Our soccer courts our soccer fields rather and our basketball courts here there s a lot of non compliance. So i m very hopeful this weekend that people get the message it s okay to go for a walk.
But you need to keep that physical distance away from other people and you can t go out and gather in groups of more than five particularly unrelated individuals. So i think drew said it very well i mean i m worried about my 84 year old mother she s in self isolation and locked down in her condominium. And she has myself and a psw drop off her groceries and won t dare open the door and i ll tell you i ve had a few conversations with hazel mccallion. Her spirits are good.
She s keeping very well and she too is not letting allowing anyone to come in the home they drop off any prepared food or groceries or medicine. She needs outside the door and then she wipes them all down with sanitary wipes and then washes their hands..
When she s finished. So you can imagine somebody who s lived to the age of 99. Has pretty good advice to give everyone else so please heard that you re not worried about yourself let s worry about other people let s not take selfish irresponsible unsafe behavior that could threaten the lives of people who are very important to ourselves and to our communities. Let s follow up for you mayor crombie.
The premier today talked about the possibility of good weather this weekend. And i ve heard anecdotally from a lot of people in this province. You know as soon as the weather is a lot nicer. They re seeing things that shouldn t happen are you worried about that this weekend well of course.
I am and i have 23 o clock the waterfront. So i can only imagine bright sunshine warm weather people wanting to go to walk in our beautiful parks along the waterfront. I m telling you today you will get ticketed if you re not practice seven hundred and fifty dollars in fact if you re not practicing safe social distancing or if you re gathering in groups. You know try and go in off peak hours or find a different route.
That s a lot less popular than some of our lovely parks mera dil kins. I have to ask you about the big national story today because it so much affects people in your community or at least. They were invoked by the prime minister and the deputy prime minister and that is the 3m situation with masks your take on i mean that the prime minister really emphasized the number of health care workers who reside in windsor. But work in detroit.
If we re not getting those masks. How does that make you feel you know of a shiite. I love the united states. But sometimes their president needs to think before he opens his mouth whether he s talking about putting soldiers on the northern border or whether he s talking about opening.
The border fully by easter or what he s talking about reducing trade on essential supplies that both of our countries need i think you know the president needs to consider what a hard stop at the border would mean for him. And i think. The prime minister is bang on because in my community. If there was a hard stop at the border that means there will be hospitals that close in the city of detroit.
Not that have to find other workers they will absolutely close in the city of detroit and a place that is a known hotspot and in a state that this president needs to win if he hopes to win the next election have there been any conversations mericans oh sorry. Mayor watson you wanna jump in there s gonna say i think maybe we need to get the mayor of gander to go and call the president. The united states remind him what the good people of gander did and that wonderful play come from away during 9 11. You know we ve always been their best neighbors and this kind of behavior.
By the president is completely irresponsible and will cost lives yeah. I call it unstable and immoral in fact. I ll tell you this is a topic of conversation on our emergency management calls each and every day. And what is the status of the ppes and all of our community hospitals trillium.
Health partners and we ve won a week three hospitals in mrs. And we re in good shape. Until the shipment arrives. But of course.
If the shipment is backlog. Then there s going to be a huge problem body body is bang on it is immoral and it s inhumane and if it happens it ll be a tragedy not just for canada. But for the united states as well okay i m gonna leave it there i really appreciate all three of you making time for us. And what i know are very busy busy times for you thanks.
Very. Much to mayor dinkins. Mayor. Bonnie crombie.
And mayor jim watson. Ion. Basha capello s host of power in politics. See more of our show by subscribing to the cbc news channel or click the link for another ” .
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